eWeek's Lisa Vaas had a brief column in the May 29, 2006 issue concerning the increasing threat of avian bird flu reaching a global economic impact. I recalled an article in Baseline regarding the same subject. The 11/2005 article, "Are you playing chicken?" (online here) has some critical questions on whether companies and IT teams are prepared for a US outbreak. "In the U.S., the CDC estimates that a “medium-level” pandemic would result in 89,000 to 207,000 deaths in the first six months and between 314,000 and 734,000 hospitalizations. Another 18 million to 42 million outpatient visits to hospitals would likely ensue. The U.S. economic impact: between $71.3 billion and $116.5 billion."

Current Avian Bird Flu Headlines

Just in case you thought the issue no longer exists because its not in the local media coverage let me update you:

May 11 - Djibouti announces its first case of human H5N1, the first confirmed case in a person in the Horn of Africa.
July 26 - Pharmaceuticals group GlaxoSmithKline Plc says a bird flu vaccine for humans that uses only a very low dose of active ingredient has proved effective in clinical tests. Aug 8 - China says its first H5N1 human case was in 2003, and not in 2005 as it had originally reported.
Sept 23 — Avian Influenza Tests Complete on Pennsylvania Wild Mallard Ducks Confirm Low-Pathogenic H5N1
Sept 26 - WHO's new influenza pandemic task force calls on countries to share all virus samples and genetic sequencing data, key to developing a vaccine against a bird flu pandemic.
Sept 28 - China shares long-sought samples of H5N1 in what many scientists view as a breakthrough in cooperation.
Oct 31 - Scientists in Hong Kong and the United States say they have detected a new strain of H5N1 bird flu virus in China and say it may have started another wave of outbreaks in poultry in Southeast Asia and move deeper into Eurasia. China later rejects the report.
Nov 26 - South Korea health officials began slaughtering and burying 236,000 birds within a 500-meter radius of the outbreak site around a farm in Iksan, about 230 kilometers south of Seoul.
Nov 28 - South Korea says it has found a second case of H5N1 bird flu at a poultry farm, after confirming days earlier it had its first outbreak in three years of the strain.
Nov 29 - WHO confirms the global death toll stands from Avian Flu at 154.

Turn for the Worse

What makes this timing so critical is that the CDC is now stating^ref that the Avian H5N1 flu has been found in pigs. Pigs can be infected with three types of influenza at the same time; avain, human and swine. "the viruses could mix (reassort) and produce a new virus that had most of the genes from the human virus, but a hemagglutinin and/or neuraminidase from the avian virus. The resulting new virus would likely be able to infect humans...which most people have little or no immune protection infects humans." ^ref It is this new type of influenza that can cause a pandemic. Last month, Bloomberg reported that the WHO has found H5N1 antibodies in pigs from Indonesia. 10 of the 11 pigs died where "115 of the 208 people known to be infected with the bird flu have died."

So how are Businesses using Technology against Bird Flu?

The Global Public Health Intelligence Network created by Canada, is basically a search engine for disease. It crawls the web looking for specific keyword and then alerts staffers to any trends. Dr Google? Information is then passed to the WHO. The technology was able to detect outbreaks of SARS and the China bird flu case. Flu Aid 2.0 and FluSurge are used by health offials to predict the outbreaks demand on healthcare infrastructure. Baseline says that US officals are using Google Maps in identifing the local of possible outbreaks and their impact on surrounding areas. Previously someone had to actually drive to each location to visually record this data. Instant access to these Google images can determine the level of spread an outbreak could have, whether its isolated to one farm or could effect 20. On a global scale, STEM (Spatio-Temporal Epidemiological Modeler) could tap into IBM's newly open-sourced program called IHII (Interoperable Healthcare Information Infrastructure), to allow mapping of roads and villages to help direct medical support teams to targeted rural areas.

Locally we need...

Locally we all need to prepare for the impact of any disaster. The hurricanes of 2005 have taught many lessons, but now is the time to see you has paid attention and who skipped class. Hurricane season is apon us again, Walmart was prepared and bettered its public image as a result. 2,400 employees that were displaced by the storms were immediately hired at their new locations. They pre-positioned relief vehicles prior to the storm season 'just in case' a disaster struck. Once the worst was realized the relief aid from Walmart arrived well before the local or federal government. Baseline recommends the following steps for the possibility of bird flu:

• Work remotely
• Demand a plan
• Automate
• Asses demand for raw materials

New Government Flu site provides current and up to date information on avian flu conditions around the world. What plans do you have in place?

• RSS Feed: PandemicFlu.gov/AvianFlu.gov Site Updates
  Stay up-to-date with the latest additions and changes to the PandemicFlu.gov website.
• RSS Feed: WHO - Avian Influenza
  Get the latest avian influenza news from the World Health Organization.